Levels of obesity look set to continue to rise over the next 4 years. The report attempts to quantify the trend. Evidence from: P Zaninotto et al. Department of Health July 2006 “Forecasting Obesity to 2010” It is estimated that in 2010 around 6,658,953 men and 5,984,653 women will be obese; the numbers who are overweight (but not obese) will stay roughly the same as in 2003. It is estimated that in 2010 around 792,321 boys and 910,630 girls will be obese. Obesity in children is strongly associated with obesity in one or both parents. A number of liability risks are moderated by body mass. Trends should be adequately modelled in experience trends unless new duty standards are introduced. Further detail: 6#5-6 16

Hydrogen as a means for delivering energy to the point of need is most probably limited to its use in fuel cells. Fuel cells would convert hydrogen chemical energy into electricity; the only exhaust being water. Evidence from: Health and Safety Laboratory HSL/2006/59 “The Hydrogen Economy – Evaluation of the materials science and engineering issues” Risks appear to be manageable. But uptake is likely to be low; it is not cost effective yet. Further detail: 6#5-6 15

The review weighs up the various approaches that have been developed for predicting recidivism in sex offenders. An outright ban on anyone with a conviction from having involvement with children may be the surest way of protecting children but is it proportionate in every case? A 100% accurate assessment tool could make other options available. Evidence from: R Mandeville-Norden et al. Child Abuse Review (2006) Vol.15 p 257 – 272 “Risk Assessment of Sex Offenders: The Current Position in the UK” Those who have a duty to manage sex offenders have large liabilities to manage too. Further detail: 6#5-6 13

The effect of the Barker judgement was reversed within a matter of weeks. This Bill provides that joint and several liability applies to these kinds of claims. Evidence from: Hansard: Amendments agreed 19th July 2006. “Compensation Bill” The absolute language used in this bill is intended to give rise to a guarantee of compensation for mesothelioma cases. However the language used is absurd and will give rise to uncertainties. Included is the possibility that exposure to asbestos the day before a diagnosis of mesothelioma is made, could be found responsible for the disease. There are other scenarios where the Act will give offence against natural justice. There is growing concern that contribution to risk should be measured in a more rational way. The real tests will come when an administrator or public body has a duty to minimise exposure to past liabilities. Further detail: 6#5-6 8  

The case set a short-lived precedent that, for this very limited set of mesothelioma claimants, duty holders should compensate according the degree of risk. Evidence from: Barker v Corus (UK) plc [2006] UKHL 20 The precedent was active until the Compensation Act 2006, which removed the possibility of compensation being reduced by a lack of insurance for any given period of exposure. However, Barker remains the leading precedent in those jurisdictions which adopt UK common law but which have their own regulatory system and have not adopted the Compensation Act 2006. Further challenges to the legal fiction behind Fairchild are very likely. Further detail: 6#5-6 7

The report highlights the unintentional but ubiquitous contamination of food by man made chemicals. Sources are diverse but high levels in some foods could be thought to predominate and therefore be the principle source of exposure. Foods with high levels are recorded here. Evidence from: World Wildlife Fund September 2006 “Chain of Contamination: The Food Link” The report lists chemicals and foods which contain them in large quantities. Further detail: 6#5-6 3

Evidence from: AD Penman et al. J Prev Chron Disease (2006) Vol.3#3 “The Changing Shape of the Body Mass Index Distribution Curve in the Population: Implications for Public Health Policy to Reduce the Prevalence of Adult Obesity” HSE Research Report RR390 (2006) “Further investigation of possible musculoskeletal and cognitive deficit due to welding in divers identified in the ELTHI diving study” E Ferguson et al. HSE Research Report (2006) RR469 “‘Lay Conceptualizations of occupational disease’” Scientific Committee on Emerging and Newly Identified Health Risks SCENHIR/005/06 “The Safety of Human-derived Products with regard to Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease” R Lucas et al. WHO Publications (2006) “Solar Ultraviolet Radiation” Further detail: 6#3-4 44BB

Political interest in the proportionality of risk control measures has re-surfaced in the UK after a long period where a precautionary approach was automatically assumed. Discussants seem to focus on the opportunity cost of excessive regulation. In our view, efforts to re-focus safety work on significant risks will depend very strongly on the lead set by the courts. To that extent, insurers will be involved in this policy initiative. Evidence from: Health and Safety Commission HSC/06/46 April 2006. “Sensible Risk Management” In our view, HSC attempts to deal with the issue of proportionality could have an influence on liability risk exposures. Regulatory interventions should be proportionate and will influence the courts. Further detail: 6#3-4 40

An offence of corporate manslaughter would be based on the common law standard “gross negligence”. In our view this will lead to rapid evolution of what is meant, in civil law, by gross negligence. One of the key difficulties with proving the offence will be proof of proximity between a management decision and cause of death. The law will probably have a retrospective effect and liability insurers will be involved if there is any prospect of interim payments being made. Evidence from: Government response to HC 540, March 2006. “Draft Corporate Manslaughter Bill” The accepted definition and scope of ‘gross negligence’ could evolve as a result of this Bill. In our view it seems likely that the current tests of gross negligence will be relaxed. Further detail: 6#3-4 39

DEFRA have reviewed the available technologies for gene containment and ACRE support their findings. In essence, all containment strategies have weaknesses and post-release monitoring would almost always be required. Evidence from: ACRE Advice February 2006. “Advice on the implications of findings in a Defra-funded desk study: ‘Technologies for biological containment of GM and non-GM crops’” The report lists the ways in which containment can be made more likely. This should be of assistance in insurance risk assessment. Further detail: 6#3-4 36

The Industrial Injuries Advisory Council has given detailed consideration of the prescription of work related upper limb disorders (PDA 4 to PDA12). Minor modifications are suggested. Other diagnoses were considered e.g. fibromyalgia but there was insufficient evidence on which to base new proposals. Non-specific arm pain does not meet the requirement that there be a positive diagnosis, as opposed to a diagnosis by exclusion. Views on several disorders could be informative for the determination of liability issues. Evidence from: DWP IIAC Cm6868 July 2006. “Work-related upper limb disorders” Extensive detail: 6#3-4 29

Demographic analyses help inform assessments of changes in liability exposure. Shift working, teleworking, outsourcing, self employment and migration are likely to have a significant effect on working conditions. Whether these increase or decrease future liability exposures requires detailed analysis. Evidence from: HSE Horizon Scanning Initiative. May 2006. “Demographics.” Further detail: 6#3-4 23

The report includes data that could be used to assess the scale of employment practices liabilities resulting from the Age discrimination regulations. [Employment (Age) Regulations 2006.] Evidence from: DWP Press Release March 2006. “Publication of DWP research report 325: survey of employers’ policies, practices and preferences relating to age” Current practices are not always aligned with the new regime. the report estimates how often there is misalignment at present. Further detail: 6#3-4 22

If more people with disabilities are joining the workforce there may need to be revisions in systems of work. The data suggest the overal potential scale of issues arising. Evidence from: DWP Press Release Feb 2006. “Updated estimate of the numbers of disabled people including people with limiting long-standing illnesses, and their associated spending power” These numbers will be useful in estimating the effect of changes to Equal Rights legislation. If there are no changes to legislation or case law then experience rating should be an adequate guide to pricing. Further detail: 6#3-4 21

Inaccuracies in desktop risk assessment of Genetic Modifications could lead to excessive protection. Evidence from: A Silvanovich et al. Toxicological Science (2006) Vol.90(1) p 252 – 258 “The Value of Short Amino Acid Sequence Matches for Prediction of Protein Allergenicity” Further detail: 6#3-4 17

Alcohol consumption can increase the risk of common health problems and causes some specific diseases. Recent case law suggests that lifestyle factors can be taken into account when considering compensation. If ever liability were to attach to the sale and supply of alcohol, the data provided in this report would help quantify the financial exposure. There remain many uncertainties about dose response relationships. Evidence from: NHS Lifestyle statistics report. “Statistics on Alcohol: England, 2006.” The Alcohol Harm Reduction Strategy for England estimates that up to 22,000 premature deaths per year are associated in some way with alcohol misuse. [6000 of these were due to alcoholic liver disease, 500 due to mental disorders, 92 due to heart disease.] Further detail: 6#3-4 16

With appropriate precautions the hides from cattle reared in the same herd as a BSE case animal can be used without significant risk to consumers. Commercial losses to third parties are predictable if procedures are not followed accurately. Evidence from: The EFSA Journal. May (2006) 367 p 1 – 25 “Opinion on the BSE risk from cohort animals: bovine hides and skins for technical purposes” Further detail: 6#3-4 15

Evidence from: The EFSA Journal. May (2006) 359 p 1 – 14. “Quantitative assessment of the Human BSE Risk posed by Bovine Vertebral Column including Dorsal Root Ganglia” If surveillance of cattle and meat processing continues at its present level and accuracy there is no justification for restrictions of the use of cattle bones in the production of tallow and gelatine. Inclusion of vertebral column in the raw materials used to produce tallow and gelatine from bones or a mixture of tissues (meaning bone and nerve) increases the level of human exposure by ~ 3-10 fold. However, the levels of residual BSE risk for these products calculated in the Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) are low and the increased risk factor due to inclusion of vertebral column is unlikely to translate into further cases of vCJD in the population. Therefore, in the case of tallow and gelatine, there appears to be no rationale for imposing an age-limit above which to exclude vertebral column from the ba

Identity cards will increase the availability of digitised biometric data. Internet service protocols are vulnerable to error and misuse, potentially giving rise to new control errors e.g. inaccurate transactions and security access, or, errors on a much larger scale. Evidence from: House of Commons Science and Technology Committee. July 2006. “Identity card Technologies: Scientific Advice, Risk and Evidence” Clearly the risk of matching to someone else is very low, but the risk of failing to prove that you are who you claim to be is quite high. Denial of service claims could become more problematic. Further detail: 6#3-4 11

Evidence from: S Hannett. Journal of Environmental Law (2006) Vol 18 No 2, 313–322 “Significant United Kingdom Environmental Cases January–December 2005” Circular Facilities (London) Ltd v Sevenoaks District Council [2005] EWHC 865 (Admin); [2005] Env LR 35 Andrews v Reading Borough Council [2005] EWHC 256 (QBD) (Queen’s Bench Division, Calvert-Smith J, 7 February 2005) Further detail: 6#3-4 10

Evidence from: HSE Horizon Scanning Initiative June 2006. “New and Emerging Pests” In this report, “pests” refers to flora, fauna or diseases. New and emerging pests which were previously unknown or rare in the UK could appear or appear more often as a result of climate change, migration, transport of people and transport of goods including livestock and food products. Climate change would probably increase the habitat range of insects from the continent to the UK or increase the range of insects currently limited to the south of the country. Such insects may spread disease e.g. chikungunya or may damage ecosystems, especially if there are no naturally occurring predators. A warmer climate, especially milder winters, would increase the numbers of endemic insects e.g. aphids, that survive the winter, leading to greater damage to plants. The duty of care related human health related consequences of new pests may be direct, e.g. contact with disease vectors or indirect e.g. in

The study found no elevation of risk of non-ideal pregnancy outcome in women who were occupationally exposed to pesticides and whose pregnancies exceeded 4 months. Evidence from: JL Zhu et al. J Occ Env Med (2006) Vol. 48 p 347 – 352 “Occupational Exposure to Pesticides and Pregnancy Outcomes in Gardeners and Farmers: A Study Within the Danish National Birth Cohort” There was a higher rate of very preterm births in gardeners. Prematurity was caused by rupture of membranes (possibly linked to pregnancy diabetes), preeclampsia and malformation of the uterus. Exposure to pesticides was not associated with any adverse outcome. Further detail: 6#3-4 5

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is likely to be tested on an industrial scale in the UK, within the next ten years. Many of the liability related risks can be predicted from experience with industrial chemistry and oil production. Commercial liability risks would depend on the economic model imposed by policy makers. Long term liability for stored CO2 [to be stored for hundreds of years] would probably damage the economic case for private industry investment and operation of CCS. The current practice of dumping CO2 into the atmosphere incurs no third party commercial liabilities and is usually free of liabilities for personal injury or environmental harm. Evidence from: House of Commons Science and Technology Committee. February 2006. “Meeting UK Energy and Climate Needs: The Role of Carbon Capture and Storage” The risk is that storage would be insecure. Gradual release of CO2 over a period of decades or less would defeat the object, sudden release could, in addition, caus

The report provides detailed analysis of actual exposures in industry from the mid 1980s to the early 2000s. The report focuses on silica, toluene and wood dust and provides useful information derived from a database of other exposures. Overall there are clear signs that occupational exposures are below the acceptable standards and are reducing, the main exception being exposure to flour dust. Evidence from: KS Creely et al. HSE Research Report RR460 (2006). “Trends in Inhalation Exposure Mid 1980’s till Present” By comparing actual exposures with WEL values it is possible to estimate how frequently there would be good evidence of a breach of duty. Actual exposure rates can also be used to estimate case frequency – based on dose-response data. Further detail: 6#3-4 1